Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of December 1st =
Uptrend

ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend
Institutional Activity (Price & Volume): Uptrend

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook starts the final month of 2024 in an uptrend.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.5%.  The index sits ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~11% above the 200-day moving average.

SPX Technical Analysis - December 01 2024

The ADX ( Average Directional Index ), Institutional Activity and OBV ( On-Balance Volume ) are all in bullish territory.

Most sectors rallied, with Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) leading the way.  Energy ( $XLE ) was the worst performer with a 1.6% loss.  Longer-term, Consumer Staples ( $XLP ), Materials ( $XLB ), and Real Estate ( $XLRE ) regained bullish trends.

Small Cap Growth ( $IWO ) led sector styles higher for the second weak in a row.  On the lower end of the performance spectrum while Large Cap Growth ( $IWF ), Mega Cap Growth ( $OEF ), and Momentum ( $MTUM ) couldn't match the general market gains, but still closed up for the week.  All sector styles have a bullish bias.

Bonds ( $IEF ) led the way last week, while Oil ( $USO ) was the worst performer.  Commodities are struggling to regain bullish trends in the midst of geopolitical turmoil; oil returned to a bearish trend 1 week after a bullish flip and gold retreated slightly to a neutral trend designation.

COMMENTARY

As expected, a fairly quiet week in the markets; FOMC minutes were a nothing-burger, as was the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP (no change).

Headline PCE for October rose slightly versus September, though it was below last year's 3% figure.  Core PCE also rose to the highest level since June.

This week, November ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI hit the wires, along with the latest JOLTs and NFP figures.  Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales estimates could also influence price action in the retail sector.

Best to Your Week!

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Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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