Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of November 24th =
Uptrend

ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend
Institutional Activity (Price & Volume): Uptrend

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, erasing most of the prior week's correction.

The S&P500 ( $SPX ) rose 1.7%.  The index sits ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.

SPX Technical Analysis - November 24 2024

The ADX ( Average Directional Index ) shifted to back to an uptrend on Thursday.  Institutional Activity and OBV ( On-Balance Volume ) remain in bullish territory.

All sectors rallied, with Materials ( $XLB ) leading the way.  Healthcare ( $XLV ) was the "worst" performer with a 1.6% gain; inline with the general market.  Longer-term, some bullishness crept back into Consumer Staples ($XLP ), Materials ($XLB ), Real Estate ($XLRE ) moved back to a neutral bias and Utilities ($XLU ) went bullish.

After leading to the downside the week prior, Small Cap Growth ( $IWO ) was the best performer this week.   Mega Cap Growth ( $OEF ) couldn't match the general market gains, but still closed up for the week.  Longer-term, the High-Dividend sector style ( $SPHD ) found support at key technical levels and shifted back to a bullish bias.

Another week, another new high for Bitcoin ( $IBIT ).  Gold ( $GLD ) and Oil ( $USO ) also joined in, punching back into bullish bias territory.  Bonds also rallied slightly, but remain in bearish bias territory.

COMMENTARY

Nvidia's earnings report showed sales almost doubling y/y, while earnings did double (+111%)!  4th quarter guidance wasn't as "high", estimating sales and earnings growth at slightly more than 70% in 2025.

A holiday shortened trading week on tap, with U.S. markets closed on Thursday ( Thanksgiving Holiday ) and Friday's session ends at 1:00pm EST. 

Trading volumes are likely lower, but that doesn't necessarily mean calm price action; we'll get FOMC minutes on Tuesday afternoon, as well as PCE and the 2nd Q3 GDP estimate during Wednesday's pre-market.

Be on the lookout for opportunities to rotate out of overbought names and into those that are oversold, within the sectors, styles, and assets with a bullish bias.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don't, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad.

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