Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of October 27th =
Uptrend

ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend
Institutional Activity (Price & Volume): Uptrend

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, after the S&P500 ( $SPX ) fell 1% last week.  The index sits ~2% above the 50-day moving average and ~9% above the 200-day moving average.

SPX Technical Analysis - October 27 2024

All three indicators ( Average Directional Index, On-Balance Volume, and Institutional Activity ) remain bullish, although they all weakened during the week too.  It's not too concerning at this point, with most of the S&P segments remaining bullish bias.  Keep an eye out this week for further developments.

Almost every sector followed the S&P500 lower last week, with stocks in the Materials sector ( $XLB ) leading the way.  Consumer Discretionary ( $XLY ) outperformed, in large part due to Tesla's ( $TSLA ) post-earnings performance.  Healthcare ( $XLV ) weakened further, falling from a neutral to bearish bias, while Consumer Staples ( $XLP ) dropped to Neutral.

All sector styles start the week with a bullish bias, but last week's performance was poor across the board.  Large cap growth managed to breakeven ( $IWF )  on the strength of Mag 7 stocks, while small cap value ( $IWN ) led to the downside.

As of Friday's close, oil ( $USO ) was back to a bullish bias and led assets higher.  Last week's rally was front-running Israeli military action against Iran.  As of Sunday evening, oil futures are down again and have a bearish bias. Bitcoin was the worst sector ( $IBIT ), but appears to have recovered over the weekend.

COMMENTARY

September Durable Goods orders fell 0.8%, slightly less than expected, but well off last year's 4% increase.

After a couple quiet week's, macroeconomic data is back in the spotlight this week:  September JOLTS ( Tuesday ), the "advance" ( i.e. first ) Q3 GDP estimate ( Wednesday ), September PCE ( Thursday ), and October NFP & ISM Mfg PMI ( Friday ).  And don't forget earnings season is in full swing, which can move prices around significantly ( e.g.Tesla last week ).

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don't, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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