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Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of June 9th =
Uptrend

INDICATORS

    ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
    Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
    On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend

ANALYSIS

The stock market outlook shows an uptrend in place for U.S. equities.

The S&P500 ($SPX) climbed 1.3% last week to hit a new, all time high.  The index closed ~3% above the 50-day moving average and ~8% above the 200-day moving average.

Technical analysis of daily SPX prices

SPX Technical Analysis - June 09 2024

ADX flipped back to bullish on Wednesday, rejoining On Balance Volume and institutional activity showing uptrends.

Weekly price performance of S&P500 sector ETFs

Some sectors didn't benefit from the indexes strong performance. While Technology ($XLK) led the way higher (+2.6%), rate sensitive sectors lost ground, with Utilities ($XLU) and Energy ($XLE) both dropping more than 3%.

Sector performance was a read-through from asset classes, with Oil leading to the downside.  Bitcoin gained 2.3%, erasing the prior week's loss.

Weekly price performance by asset class

COMMENTARY

Last week's economic data was "conflicted".  On the one hand, April ISM manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly, although employment grew.  On the other hand, April ISM Services PMI rose dramatically, although employment contracted.  The JOLTs number showed job openings declined in April, while May NFP had the highest job growth in 5 months.

This week we get May CPI and another Federal Reserve Rate decision (Wednesday), May PPI (Thursday), and a smattering of Treasury auctions throughout the week.

Best to Your Week!

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don't, tell an enemy.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics




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Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

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