Stock Market Outlook
For The Week Of July 4th = Uptrend

ADX Directional Indicators: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

The S&P500 ($SPX) continued to rally last week, adding further distance from it’s recent test of support.

2021-07-04-SPX Trendline Analysis - Daily

Both the ADX and price/volume signals remain bullish. The ADX trend strengthened substantially, while the number of distribution days decreased again. Price now sits ~3% and 13% above the 50 and 200 day moving averages, respectively.

2021-07-04-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily - Primary 1

Elliott Wave also remains in an uptrend, currently sitting in the the 3rd wave of the overall Minute 5, Minor 5, Intermediate 5, Primary 1, Cycle 3 count.

2021-07-04-SPX Elliott Wave Analysis - Weekly - Cycle 3

COMMENTARY

Employment dominated the news cycle last week, with the report hitting the so-called "Goldilocks" zone. Basically, that means it had enough contradictory information to keep anyone from making changes. The U.S. added more jobs than expected (Yea!), while the overall employment number rose (Boo!).

A short trading week in the U.S., with markets closed on Monday in honor of Independence Day.

Typically, this week starts that the summer trading season, with more volatility (i.e. "choppiness") due to lower trading volumes.

Best to Your Week!

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Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.

For historical Elliott Wave Analysis, go to ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro. Other interpretations can be found at: Pretzel Logic, and 12345ABCDEWXYZ

Once a year, I review the market outlook signals as if they were a mechanical trading system, while pointing out issues and making adjustments. The goal is to give you to give you an example of how to analyze and continuously improve your own systems.

• 2015 Performance - Stock Market Outlook
• 2016 Performance - Stock Market Outlook
• 2017 Performance - Stock Market Outlook
• 2018 Performance - Stock Market Outlook
• 2019 Performance - Stock Market Outlook
• 2020 Performance - Stock Market Outlook

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