Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
August 19th = Uptrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Uptrend
Price & Volume Action: Uptrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY

Now I can say that earnings season is winding down; 90% of the companies in the S&P500 have reported earnings for Q2. Sales, profits, and earnings per share are all higher...which is typical for this stage in the business cycle.

All the indexes are back above their 20 and 50 day moving averages this week.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-08-19 - US Stock Market Averages

All the indexes picked up a distribution day last Wednesday. And although prices bounced off session lows, volume fell on Thursday and Friday (except for the Dow). Ideally, volume would increase during the rebound.

OEW uptrend call remains in play. The S&P didn't quite reach the 2790 support level (2,802 on Wednesday), but the decline was enough to meet the "test support" call from last week, so it's risk on.

The S&P ($SPX) found support just above the 50-day moving average last week, so a test of the lower channel trendline will have to wait. A weak trend persists per the ADX, with the bearish directional indicator (DI-) just above the bullish (DI+).

2018-08-19 - $SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

2018-08-19 - SPX Technical Analysis - Daily

Expanding the view, the S&P is within striking distance of the all-time high from January (2,873); we topped out at 2,863 two weeks ago after touching the upper channel. Keep an eye on that level as potential support/resistance. Powering through on high trading volume is a great sign...selling off not so much.

2018-08-19 - $SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

2018-08-19 - SPX Technical Analysis - Weekly

Despite the recent spike in volatility, trading remains subdued (it IS August after all). Now is not the time to be complacent. Rather, take this time to review your holdings and adjust position sizes that may be out of whack. And don't forget to review/renew your watch lists. Mine have grown a bit this month, even for income investments!


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You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has performed as a stand-alone, signal generator using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.