Weekend Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook For The Week of
March 4th = Downtrend

INDICATORS

20/50 Day Moving Averages: Downtrend
Price & Volume Action: Downtrend
Objective Elliott Wave Analysis: Uptrend

COMMENTARY

Friday's strong rally wasn't enough to recover from them mid-week sell-off, putting the market outlook back in downtrend territory to start this week. Plans for tariffs on steel and aluminum, and talk of the resulting trade-war didn't do the investors any favors either.

We saw the Nasdaq retake the 50 day last week, but the other indexes weren't so lucky. A majority of the indexes start this week below the 20 and 50 day moving averages, so the signal changes to a downtrend.

Price charts for $SPX,$COMPQ,$INDU,$NYA,$RUT,$VIX,$TNX,$USD,$CRB,$GOLD

2018-03-04-US Stock Market Averages

Price and volume action also switches to a downtrend. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday were distribution days, with markets falling on sequentially higher trading volume; a clear sign of institutional selling. Breakouts continue to struggle.

OEW continues to see an uptrend, but doesn't exclude the possibility that stock prices retest the February lows.



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You can check out how well (or poorly) the outlook has tracked the market using past performance estimates:

For the detailed Elliott Wave Analysis, go to the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on by Tony Caldaro.  Charts provided courtesy of stockcharts.com.